Section 11: Customer Discovery & Market Expansion

Overview

The best spacetech companies don’t just build for the coolest tech—they build for validated customer needs. This section helps founders identify their true market, validate demand early, and uncover hidden commercial opportunities beyond the obvious use case.

Part 1: Customer Discovery for Deeptech

Purpose: Apply first principles to uncover real-world pain points and willingness to pay.

Tool: Dual-Use Discovery Worksheet

• Problem the tech solves: ___________________________

• Stakeholder groups impacted: _______________________

• Existing alternatives: ______________________________

• Willingness to pay (qualitative signals): _____________

Exercise: Interview 10 potential users with a structured script focused on problem, not solution.

Script Template:

• “Walk me through how you currently do [X].”

• “What happens if [that process] fails?”

• “What’s most frustrating about it today?”

• “If we could solve [pain], how would that impact your work?”

Part 2: Adjacent Market Mapping

Purpose: Identify markets where your core technology can create unexpected value by addressing new needs or solving problems outside your primary industry.

This matrix helps you identify adjacent markets where your existing technology could offer significant value by addressing shared needs, while leveraging your competitive advantages in those new markets.

Goal: Spot 2–3 viable markets with faster GTM potential.

Part 3: Market Sizing & Prioritization

Purpose: Quantify the market opportunity and rank potential markets based on their ability to generate traction, drive revenue, and align with your strategic objectives over the next 12–18 months.

Tools:

1. TAM/SAM/SOM Calculator (with dual-use lens):

   • TAM (Total Addressable Market): The total revenue opportunity available if your product or service captured 100% of the market.

   • SAM (Serviceable Available Market): The portion of the TAM that is relevant to your product or service based on geographic, regulatory, or technological limitations.

   • SOM (Serviceable Obtainable Market): The realistic share of the SAM that you can capture in the near term, taking into account competition, sales capacity, and customer needs.

   • Dual-Use Lens: Apply the lens of dual-use technology, which refers to solutions that serve both civilian and military applications, to ensure you capture broader market opportunities (e.g., space and terrestrial applications).

2. Revenue Modeling Template (Top-down + Bottom-up):

   • Top-down approach: Estimate revenue by analyzing the market from a high level, including industry reports, competitor benchmarks, and macroeconomic data to forecast potential market size.

   • Bottom-up approach: Calculate revenue potential based on realistic assumptions like pricing, customer acquisition costs, conversion rates, and sales cycles. This method will give you more accurate projections based on your specific business and product.

3. Scoring Matrix: Strategic Fit x Ease of Entry x Customer Pull:

   • Strategic Fit: How well the market aligns with your company’s long-term vision, technological capabilities, and expertise.

   • Ease of Entry: The barriers to entry, including regulatory constraints, capital requirements, competitive dynamics, and distribution challenges.

   • Customer Pull: The strength of customer demand for your product or service in that market, measured by factors like existing pain points, urgency, willingness to pay, and early-stage interest.

Exercise: Rank the top 3 markets for your next 12–18 months

Ranking and Insights:

1. SpaceTech (Satellite servicing):

   • Score: 8/10

   • Strong strategic fit due to the company's expertise in space and orbital services. However, the market has moderate barriers to entry, such as regulatory hurdles and the need for specialized hardware.

   • High customer pull, particularly from government agencies and commercial satellite operators who are eager for cost-effective servicing and maintenance solutions.

2. Autonomous Vehicle Systems:

   • Score: 8/10

   • This market has enormous growth potential and customer pull, especially in the context of electrification and self-driving technology. It fits strategically but is highly competitive.

   • The entry barriers are lower compared to space-tech, but the market requires strong partnerships, tech development, and validation.

3. Renewable Energy Systems:

   • Score: 7/10

   • Strategic fit is good given the company’s technology could be adapted for renewable energy systems, but it requires significant customization and could face tough competition from established players.

   • Ease of entry is moderate, with government incentives and increasing customer demand driving growth.

Goal: Use this process to evaluate and prioritize markets with the highest potential for your product or service. By quantifying the opportunity and scoring based on strategic alignment, ease of entry, and customer demand, you can make data-driven decisions on where to focus your efforts in the next 12–18 months.

Part 4: Early Customer Validation Signals

Why It Matters: Early validation is essential to ensure product-market fit and assess whether there is real customer interest before investing significant resources. The goal is to identify signals that confirm customers are genuinely interested, willing to pay, and excited to adopt your solution.

Signals That Matter:

1. LOIs or Pre-Orders:

   • Why It Matters: Letters of Intent (LOIs) or pre-orders show genuine intent from customers to buy your product or service. This is a clear indicator that your offering addresses a real need.

   • What to Look For: An LOI from a customer demonstrates not only interest but also the likelihood of future business. Pre-orders show that customers are willing to commit financially, indicating demand.

2. Time Invested in Co-Development:

   • Why It Matters: If customers are willing to allocate time and resources to co-develop or customize a solution for their needs, it signifies a high level of interest and perceived value in your product.

   • What to Look For: Regular meetings, collaborative efforts on design, testing, or product adaptation are strong indicators that customers view your solution as critical to their operations.

3. Willingness to Introduce Other Stakeholders:

   • Why It Matters: When early customers are eager to introduce you to other decision-makers or stakeholders in their organization, it suggests a strong belief in the product and its potential.

   • What to Look For: Customers offering introductions to other teams, departments, or even partners can greatly expand your network and help establish your solution's credibility and scalability within the market.

4. Budget Conversation Initiated Without Prompting:

   • Why It Matters: If customers bring up budget discussions without you initiating them, it shows that they are seriously considering your product or service and are exploring how to fit it into their financial plans.

   • What to Look For: Questions about pricing models, contract terms, or procurement processes that come up naturally during discussions indicate readiness to move forward with a purchase.

Checklist: Are You Really Validating?

Before you consider a customer interaction validated, ask the following questions:

• Are they asking questions about the specifics of your product or service? This shows they are seriously evaluating it.

• Are they bringing up budget concerns or financial planning discussions? If yes, it suggests they're considering how to fit your solution into their business.

• Are they offering introductions to key stakeholders? This is a clear signal that they value your offering and want to facilitate its integration within their organization.

• Are they willing to co-develop or test your product with you? Engaging in co-development shows high trust and commitment.

• Have they signed an LOI or placed a pre-order? These are among the strongest validation signals you can receive.

Tool: Market Testing CRM Template (Notion + Airtable)

Purpose: Track and manage all early customer interactions in a structured way. This tool enables you to capture and analyze validation signals from customers, ensuring that you're following up on the right leads and collecting key insights for refining your offering.

Template Features:

• Lead Information: Capture basic customer information such as contact details, industry, and company size.

• Engagement Stage: Track where each lead is in the sales process (e.g., initial meeting, co-development, pre-order signed).

• Signals Captured: Record specific validation signals for each lead, such as LOIs, budget discussions, or introductions.

• Next Steps: Organize follow-up actions and deadlines, such as scheduling a demo, submitting an updated proposal, or securing a contract.

• Status: Track the current status of each customer interaction (e.g., engaged, closed, waiting on decision).

How to Use This Tool:

1. Log New Leads: Enter any new leads or potential customers, and track initial conversations.

2. Document Validation Signals: As interactions unfold, log any signals that suggest validation (LOIs, introductions, etc.).

3. Analyze Trends: Periodically review the tool to identify patterns in what types of customers are showing the strongest validation signals.

4. Prioritize High-Value Leads: Use the tool to prioritize leads that have demonstrated the strongest validation signals, helping you allocate resources effectively.

Goal: By using these signals and tools, you can better understand where your product stands in the market and ensure you're moving forward with the most promising opportunities. Early customer validation is crucial to ensuring product-market fit and generating meaningful traction.

Part 5: Customer Segmentation & Buyer Personas

Why It Matters: Tailoring your approach to different customer segments is essential to driving sales and ensuring effective communication. Selling to a government project manager (PM) with a long procurement process is very different from selling to a commercial CTO who may prioritize agility and ROI. Understanding these differences allows you to craft targeted messaging, identify the best value propositions, and align your sales strategy with the customer's unique needs.

Tool: Persona Builder

Template for Persona Builder:

Exercise: Build 2 Personas (One Government, One Commercial) and Test Your Messaging Against Both

Step 1: Define Your Personas

• Government Persona (e.g., Government PM in a Space Agency):

  • Role: A government project manager overseeing space technology procurement. This individual is responsible for ensuring that any purchased solution meets strict government regulations, is on budget, and will be deployed successfully. They may work within agencies like NASA, ESA, or a national defense department.

  • Goals:

    • Ensure compliance with government standards (e.g., ITAR, cybersecurity regulations).

    • Minimize risk and maximize public sector funding approval.

    • Achieve successful and timely project completion, aligning with public-sector fiscal year cycles.

  • Technical Fluency: High, but often focused more on integration with existing government systems and proven reliability. May not prioritize bleeding-edge technologies.

  • Buying Process: Highly structured with strict timelines, multiple rounds of approval, and an extensive vendor vetting process. A long procurement cycle is typical, with significant bureaucracy involved.

  • Risk Aversion: Extremely high. Government procurement is scrutinized, and failures can lead to significant consequences, including loss of funding or public scrutiny.

• Commercial Persona (e.g., CTO of a SpaceTech Startup):

  • Role: The CTO of a fast-growing private company developing space technologies, who is responsible for ensuring the company's technology stack is scalable, innovative, and competitive in the market.

  • Goals:

    • Quickly deploy cutting-edge solutions to stay ahead of the competition.

    • Improve efficiency and reduce operational costs using new technologies.

    • Ensure the technology provides a clear ROI and is scalable as the company grows.

  • Technical Fluency: Very high. The CTO is deeply involved in the technical decisions and often seeks the latest, most advanced solutions.

  • Buying Process: Faster decision-making process compared to government entities. Often involves evaluating proof of concepts, pilot programs, and flexible payment options. May have a board or investor involvement in larger purchases.

  • Risk Aversion: Moderate. The CTO is willing to experiment with new technologies, but the solution must align with business objectives and show a clear benefit to operations or revenue.

Step 2: Test Your Messaging

• Messaging for Government PM Persona:

  • Focus: Emphasize compliance, reliability, and long-term sustainability.

  • Message Example:
    "Our solution meets the highest government standards for compliance and cybersecurity. We have a proven track record of delivering reliable results on time and within budget, making us the ideal partner for high-stakes government projects."

  • Supporting Materials: Case studies from other government agencies, compliance certifications, details on risk mitigation processes.

• Messaging for Commercial CTO Persona:

  • Focus: Highlight innovation, ROI, and scalability.

  • Message Example:
    "With our cutting-edge technology, your company can achieve a competitive edge and scale rapidly. Our solution integrates seamlessly with your current operations, driving efficiency and maximizing ROI without the long-term commitment of traditional solutions."

  • Supporting Materials: Case studies from other tech startups, data-driven ROI projections, product demos, testimonials.

Step 3: Evaluate Your Messaging

• Does the messaging address the persona’s primary goals?

  • For Government PM: Does it address risk, compliance, and public accountability?

  • For Commercial CTO: Does it focus on speed, scalability, and ROI?

• Does the tone align with their buying process and risk aversion?

  • For Government PM: Is the tone formal, focused on compliance and reliability?

  • For Commercial CTO: Is the tone dynamic, highlighting innovation and rapid deployment?

• Does the value proposition resonate with their core pain points?

  • For Government PM: Stress the proven track record, minimizing failure risk, and ensuring project success.

  • For Commercial CTO: Focus on cutting-edge technology, increasing efficiency, and delivering measurable business outcomes.

Goal: By creating and testing these personas, you can refine your sales and marketing strategy to ensure your messaging resonates with the right customer. This will increase your chances of successful engagement and ultimately drive conversions.

Part 6: Founder-to-Market Fit

Why It Matters: Building a successful SpaceTech startup requires deep understanding and genuine passion for the problems you're solving. When you align your product with a market you deeply care about and understand better than anyone, you're not just creating a business—you're crafting a solution that resonates with the right customers and partners. This alignment accelerates growth, drives innovation, and helps you navigate challenges with confidence.

Reflection Questions:

1. What SpaceTech markets do we instinctively understand?

   • Consider your background, experience, and knowledge in specific sectors of SpaceTech—be it satellite communications, propulsion systems, lunar infrastructure, or in-orbit manufacturing. Which areas do you have an intuitive grasp of, backed by your previous work or personal interest?

2. Where do we have unfair access, language fluency, or reputation?

   • Think about your unique position within the SpaceTech ecosystem. Do you have access to exclusive networks (e.g., government agencies, established aerospace partners)? Are you fluent in the language of key stakeholders like satellite operators or space agencies? Do you have a reputation that gives you credibility with investors, customers, or industry experts?

3. What SpaceTech problems do we want to spend a decade solving?

   • SpaceTech is a rapidly evolving sector, and long-term commitment is required to overcome significant technical and market challenges. Reflect on which problems—whether it’s addressing debris mitigation, enabling cost-effective space transportation, or advancing in-orbit servicing—are compelling enough for you to dedicate a decade or more to solving.

Goal: The key to long-term success in SpaceTech is identifying a market and set of problems where your expertise, passion, and market access give you an undeniable edge. By answering these questions, you can refine your focus and ensure your startup is positioned for deep, lasting impact in the SpaceTech ecosystem.